Gro’s Seven Themes Reshaping Agriculture in 2024

In 2024, Gro has a list of seven big things that will affect farming. They’re like the main ideas guiding how things will be in agriculture this year. Reflecting on our accurate prediction of moderating food prices last year, we look forward to a continued easing of global food price inflation in 2024. Let’s look at the important ideas that Gro thinks will make a difference in farming all around the world in the next few months.

Food Price Inflation Continues to Ease

Building on the trends observed in 2023, Gro predicts a further decline in food inflationary pressures, especially in the US. Things like fertilizers getting cheaper, China’s economy slowing down, and the expected decrease in US interest rates are making the outlook positive. Also, there’s going to be more stuff like corn, soybeans, and wheat, which should help keep prices from going up too much everywhere.

El Niño’s Sweeping Impact on Global Agriculture

The El Niño climate event that emerged in the latter half of 2023 is set to leave its mark on global agriculture in 2024. El Niño is good for places like the Americas because they get lots of rain, but it causes problems in Southeast Asia, affecting things like rice, coffee, and palm oil. Because of El Niño, countries like Australia and Argentina will do different things in trading wheat and soybeans.

Rebound in Global Wheat Supplies

After four consecutive years of declining wheat stocks, Gro’s machine learning-based forecast models indicate a rebound in global wheat supplies in 2024. Favorable conditions for winter wheat crops in the US, Russia, and improved prospects in Argentina and Australia are expected to contribute to lifting world wheat inventories.

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Rise in World Corn and Soybean Supplies

Following a trend reversal, global inventories of corn and soybeans are predicted to rise in 2024. Factors such as Argentina’s expected rebound in corn and soybean production, a record-breaking US corn production year in 2023, and continued strength in Brazil’s soybean production contribute to this shift.

China’s Economic Slowdown Impacting Global Agriculture

China is going to slow down in how much money it makes in 2024, and this will affect farms all around the world. Since China buys a lot of farm stuff, like meat and soybeans, this slowdown will likely change things for animals on farms and how much we eat.

Retreat of Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices

Gro foresees a decline in nitrogen fertilizer prices in the second half of 2024, possibly returning to historical levels. Factors such as increased fertilizer affordability in the US and an expected decrease in corn acres planted could contribute to this retreat.

Strong US Protein Prices

Meat prices in the US are expected to rise in 2024, impacting household budgets and business profit margins. Factors such as record-high beef prices, a smaller cattle herd due to strong Cattle on Feed numbers, and potential challenges in the pork industry related to California’s Proposition 12 are highlighted as key drivers.

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Verdict

As we look at how farming will be in 2024, Gro’s list gives us important ideas about what’s changing and the good chances coming our way. From easing food price inflation to the impacts of climate events like El Niño, the agricultural sector is set for a year of both challenges and prospects. Stay tuned for updates as we monitor these themes and their unfolding impact on global agriculture throughout the year.